As the list of Vladimir Putin's achievements grows at a dizzying pace, after a while I feel the need to recapitulate.
- He has destroyed Russia's image as a reliable partner, Moscow is now seen as the 'great North Korea', or worse: an aggressive, erratic aggressor who attacks its neighbours, destroys cities, kills people and commits war
- reinforced NATO presence on Russia's borders, instead of a symbolic force, there are already troops capable of actually defending themselves on the territory of Central European allies.
- NATO is expanding to include 2 extremely effective countries, Finland and Sweden. Russia's strategic position in the Baltic Sea and Scandinavia is thus weakening considerably, while NATO in the region is growing considerably stronger.
- Putin has lost his political allies in Europe, only left and right extremists remain
- Ukrainians have banded together as perhaps never before in history - it is absolutely impossible for them to accept any political influence from Russia in their country. And this state of affairs will be long-term, lasting at least several generations.
- European states, observing Russian aggression, have begun to significantly increase their military budgets and modernize their militaries. And it is not only Poland that is becoming a European military power, but also, for example, the previously reluctant Germany. The West will be militarily stronger, Russia weaker.
- A mass exodus, an exodus of the most educated people from Russia. This is a huge waste of human capital, several 100,000 leaving (!!! ), professionals with above average education will have a long term devastating impact on innovation and growth of the Russian economy. Moreover, the exodus of people will also reinforce the demographic decline of Russia, where the population will drop by hundreds of thousands of people PER YEAR.
- As Europe sheds its energy dependence on Russia, Moscow loses any blackmail potential against European states. Until now it has been a crucial factor in European politics and a pillar of Russian influence, but in a few months it will become a thing of the past. The Europeans have understood that they cannot rely on a hostile state and have finally started to act.
- The Russian armed forces have been destroyed. For the first time, the prestige of the Russian army has dramatically declined, which will have a negative impact on Russian positions in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and in the long term in the Middle East. Thank you. Thank you.
Secondly, even what the Russians have modernised over 2-3 decades is being rapidly destroyed and lost in the fighting in Ukraine. Russia's military will be much weaker after this war, left with weapons a generation older and significantly reduced offensive potential.
- Thanks to sanctions, the Russian economy is declining radically. More importantly, Russia is losing a long-term source of know-how, sources of innovation and, in general, the professional and technological background necessary for modernity. This will set the country back at least a generation. Russia will become a secondary country with minimal development potential.
In short: Russia has gained nothing in the long run by attacking Ukraine, but it has lost much: power, prestige, status, power, people, wealth. In a word: the future.
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